Last updated: 16-07-2026

Feeding 9 Billion: Why the Protein Transition Needs Hybrid, Not Just Plant-Based

Meeting the protein needs of a global population heading toward 9 to 10 billion people, sustainably and healthily, is not a plant-based-versus-meat question; Europe's own consumption data shows the shift from 40 percent to a targeted 50 percent plant-based protein intake by 2035 depends on products consumers will actually keep buying, and hybrid formats are outperforming full substitutes on that single measure.

The scale of the challenge is documented, not speculative. The hidden costs of unhealthy, animal-heavy diets are estimated at close to €900 billion per year across the EU (Impact Institute, 2023), and the EU currently imports 66 percent of its high-protein feed, exposing producers and consumers to global price volatility (European Commission, 2024).

The Population Math Behind the Protein Transition

Global population growth toward 9 to 10 billion people by mid-century, combined with rising per-capita protein demand in developing economies, means total global protein demand is rising even as animal protein production faces land, water, and emissions constraints that limit how much further it can scale. A shift from the current European ratio of roughly 40 percent plant to 60 percent animal protein toward a targeted 50:50 balance by 2035 is the benchmark cited across EU policy and industry planning, a reversion to the ratio Europe held as recently as 1950. Direct human consumption of plant protein also avoids a conversion loss of more than 75 percent compared with feeding crops to livestock first (Alexander et al., 2016), making crop-to-human protein routes structurally more land-efficient regardless of consumer preference.

Why "More Plant-Based" Alone Has Not Closed the Gap

Despite years of retailer investment, the most recent Eiweet Monitor found Dutch supermarkets' plant-based protein share actually dipped slightly to 42.6 percent in 2025, evidence that full substitution products alone are not moving the needle fast enough to hit 2030 targets. Consumer research from the Good Food Institute in the UK and Germany found half of shoppers are willing to eat more plant-based food or less meat and dairy, but willingness has not consistently converted into sustained purchase behaviour for fully plant-based analogues. This is precisely the gap hybrid formats are designed to close: a lower behavioural barrier than full substitution, while still shifting the animal-to-plant ratio at the product level.

Where Hybrid Fits in the Nutrition and Health Case

The Planetary Health Diet, the global reference diet developed by the EAT-Lancet Commission, is built around whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes, with only moderate amounts of fish, dairy, and meat, and its adoption is associated with reduced risk of diet-linked chronic disease alongside lower environmental impact. Diets low in legumes already account for an estimated 2 million lost years of good health (DALYs) and 130,000 avoidable deaths annually across the EU (European Commission, 2024). Hybrid formats offer a lower-friction bridge toward that dietary pattern than asking consumers to eliminate animal protein outright, particularly for the flexitarian shopper segment that Circana's research shows has grown from 21 to 31 percent of Europeans between 2022 and 2024. The Bigger Hybrid Foods Planetary Health Diet Perspective session at Hybrid Foods Europe, presented by ProVeg International, addresses this connection directly.

The Investment Case: €3 Billion Through 2035

A €3 billion European innovation investment budget for plant-based foods and proteins through 2035, three times the funding level of 2020-2024, has been proposed across seven pillars, with roughly 40 percent directed to consumer engagement and health, 40 percent to sustainable products and crop innovation, and the remainder to supply chains, harmonisation, and digital tools. That rebalancing toward consumer-facing investment, rather than production-side technology alone, reflects the same lesson the Eiweet data shows: scaling consumption and consumer trust matter as much as formulation quality. Public and non-profit investment in plant-based R&I across Europe totalled close to €400 million between January 2020 and April 2024 (Good Food Institute, 2024), underscoring how far current funding sits below the proposed 2035 target.

Comparison: Three Routes to the Same 2035 Target

Take-Home Messages

Commercial

• Hybrid formats convert stated consumer willingness into actual purchase behaviour more reliably than full substitution has so far.

• The proposed €3bn EU investment budget weights consumer engagement and health equally with production technology, a signal for where category-building investment should follow.

• Flexitarian shopper growth, not vegan or vegetarian growth, is the demand driver retailers and brands should be building against.

• Retail data already shows hybrid volume growing inside the combined animal-plant category even where full plant-based share has stalled.

  
  

Technical

• Direct human consumption of plant protein avoids the conversion loss inherent in feeding crops to livestock first, a structural land-use argument independent of taste or price.

• The Planetary Health Diet's health benefits are documented at the population level (DALYs, chronic disease risk), not only as an environmental claim.

• The EU's 66 percent dependency on imported high-protein feed is a food security argument for crop diversification, separate from the consumer-facing protein transition.

• Current European plant-based R&I investment (~€400m, 2020-2024) sits well below the proposed 2035 target, indicating a funding gap ahead of the innovation pipeline needed.

  
  

Verdict & Next Step

The population math, the health data, and the retail sales figures all point the same direction: closing the protein gap for 9 billion people will not be won by asking consumers to choose between meat and plants, but by giving them products that shift the ratio without asking them to give up either. That is the central premise of Hybrid Foods Europe, Van der Valk Zuidas, Amsterdam, 14-16 September 2026, where retail, ingredient, and policy leaders will work through exactly this transition. Delegate places are filling ahead of the September dates. Register now to be part of the conversation shaping where the next decade of investment goes.

About Gerard Klein Essink

Gerard Klein Essink is Founder & CEO of FoodConNext Foundation. He has run an international plant-based foods and proteins community for more than 20 years, published numerous industry reports, and written innovation reports on proteins for the Dutch government. He has advised the Canadian government on its pulse strategy, produced strategic outlook reports for Pulse Canada and the Australian Grains Research & Development Corporation, and leads FoodConNext Foundation's 100+ member Global Research Ecosystem. He has led multiple Horizon EU protein-transition projects, including Metaphor, Prominent, Plenitude, Profuture, HealthFerm, and Giant Leaps, and spoke at the European Parliament and European Commission in June 2026.

About FoodConNext Foundation

At FoodConNext Foundation, we believe that the future of food lies at the intersection of innovation, sustainability, and global collaboration. Our foundation is dedicated to accelerating the transition toward more resilient and responsible food systems by connecting key stakeholders across the agri-food ecosystem.

Our Mission

FoodConNext Foundation exists to bridge gaps in the global food system — bringing together entrepreneurs, researchers, policymakers, and investors to co-create solutions that address some of the world's most pressing challenges, including food security, sustainability, and nutrition.